2025 has been called a “catalyst year”—what reactions will we see in 2026?
To say 2025 has been a tumultuous year would be something of an understatement, by anyone’s standards. So, what should independent dealers expect in 2026? Will AI live up to the hype? Will tariffs rise, fall or be lifted? Will Amazon continue to claim market share or will it stumble, as so many of the other big-box stores have done? Of course, no one has all the answers; but here are some predictions from seasoned dealers across the country who have survived—and thrived—past storms in the industry.
(Don’t worry, we’ve not forgotten about Essendant—we’ve spoken to three additional dealers just about that.)
Lincoln Dix, vice president, Storey Kenworthy, Des Moines, Iowa
We will continue to see diversification of product categories and—given what Essendant just did—diversification of wholesaler relationships across categories. For example, dealers will buy their jan/san products from more than just their primary wholesaler to gain access to more products and greater fulfillment reliability. As an industry, office products will continue to decline, but strong, progressive independent dealers should be able to hold steady or pick up volume as the national companies struggle and smaller dealers without much product diversification look to exit the industry.
I believe mergers and acquisitions will continue in all segments of the supply chain, including manufacturers, dealers and wholesale distributors. There will be an ongoing need for strong content control on our e-commerce platforms, especially as AI advances. In the new year, I expect to see growth in the number of national contracts and collaborative programs, such as EPIC and AOPD, with stronger retention in national or group contracts, even if margins are thinner.
I also think we will see more logistical collaboration among the IDC now that the wholesaler variable is no longer an issue. For example, more dealer partnerships for last-mile delivery should be a no-brainer in every market in the country. One last thing I’d add is a stronger focus on the “service-driven sale”: dealers will continue to give up ground on commoditized distribution but should—and will—gain ground and take share in categories where service remains critical to success.
Gary Moltz, vice president, EZ Office Products, Madison, Wisconsin
I foresee continued decline in the office products segment, but it will be more than offset by the rise in other categories—at least here at EZOP. As for AI, everyone talks about it and everyone is using some type of it, whether they know it or not. I see Amazon’s market share rising because it is a ubiquitous seller of everything. “Amazon” is no longer a noun; it’s a verb. I expect the company will still have momentum on its side. One disturbing trend is manufacturers selling on Amazon at lower prices than they do through the office products channel. Lastly, I envisage the trend toward decreased reliance on wholesalers continuing.
Stacy Duke, president, Butler Business Products, Katy, Texas
We have started warehousing and handling all logistics for customers, including carrying custom items in our trucks and delivering them so they don’t have to store or distribute them, making it more convenient for them. I think AI will eventually reduce document handling, which will in turn require fewer supplies per task (and yes, I used AI to answer this!). We still offer assembled furniture to all our customers; however, there has definitely been a decline, which I expect to continue. The worst part for us is that budgets for state and federal businesses have been cut and we definitely depend on them. The biggest trend I see is that our schools are offering virtual training to compete against homeschooling, which has lowered the amount of supplies they are purchasing.
Greg McLeod, 1st, CEO, Source, Minneapolis, Minnesota
I think we’ll see stasis in sustainability in 2026. Those who are currently focusing on it are likely to continue, while those who do not prioritize it are unlikely to see any real pressure or need to make it a priority. I believe concern over PFAS—the carcinogenic “forever chemicals” showing up in human tissue, breast milk, etc.—will continue, as more and more states implement bans on everything from food service items to firefighter turnout gear.
Barring any major global disruptions or geopolitical intrigue, I feel that the tariff and surcharge challenges we faced in 2025 will diminish. I wish I had a crystal ball on this, but that’s my best guess at this point. A lot of the moves made in response to the tariffs—such as transferring manufacturing to countries that were not subject to the tariffs or were hit with lower tariffs—have mostly been implemented. Much of this has already been baked into current pricing. We are seeing some large increases scheduled for 2026. However, at this point, I believe some of these increases are simply opportunistic on the part of the manufacturers. Finally, we reshored a meaningful amount of our production to the United States in 2025 and unless things change dramatically on the import front, we’ll likely hedge our bets and keep some of our production close to home.
As for AI, we are delving deeper into the possibilities but moving forward with caution. I think AI is incredibly powerful, but it’s not a panacea for all the current challenges and opportunities we face. I believe there is no substitute for human interaction, relationships, problem resolution and creativity in customer interactions; and making our company easy—and pleasant—to deal with still reigns supreme. There’s no doubt that AI can and will have a profound impact on much of what we do, but I think companies that bull-rush through the AI door or apply AI solutions to every problem may be overreaching. I certainly see our largest, multibillion-dollar competitors going down that road, and it’s opening new doors for us with customers who are sick of chatbots, automated phone prompts, canned answers, impersonal/formulated email messages etc. In many cases, I see companies dumping experienced employees in favor of far cheaper AI models, but I think the tribal knowledge and relationships they’re jettisoning will cost them down the road. We’ll be standing by to take advantage of that and hopefully pick up even more new business from customers who are no longer getting the support, responsiveness and relationships they crave.
Mark Porter, visionary, Porter’s Office Products, Rexburg, Idaho
Given the considerable turmoil surrounding Staples, I see an opportunity to target those customers and win business as Staples’ service levels continue to decline. Smaller customers will continue moving to Amazon, while dealers can’t expect to win new customers in that demographic to fill the gap. I also see a trend of independent dealers targeting larger customers that are part of group purchasing organizations (GPOs) that have more control over where they spend their money. The majority of that business is currently serviced by Office Depot and Staples. Yet most, if not all, independent dealers have access to sell under GPO agreements to win that business.
Donata Barber, marketing director, Suburban Office Products, Middletown, Connecticut
As you know, in a business our size, many of us wear multiple hats, especially in marketing and customer service. So, AI has become a very valuable tool for helping us move faster without losing the personal touch our customers rely on. For example, a big part of our value as an independent dealer is analyzing a prospect’s invoices to show them a true cost comparison with big-box retailers. Traditionally, this meant manually reviewing dozens or even hundreds of line items, which could take hours. We’ve recently started running larger comparisons through AI to reduce the time spent on matching items and identifying where we can offer better pricing or substitutes. It doesn’t replace our review, but it speeds up the initial analysis and lets us focus on the insights that matter most to customers. And if we’ve learned anything from Amazon, it’s that customers don’t want to wait; fast service is always best.
AI has also been a game-changer behind the scenes, whether I’m checking code, generating marketing images or troubleshooting something that isn’t working as expected. It helps us stay nimble, improve the user experience more quickly and, at the very least, provide customers with timely solutions. On the customer service side, it has helped streamline our live chat without making it feel robotic. Customers expect fast answers, but they also expect warmth. I use AI to create smarter canned responses for repetitive questions, but I always edit them to make sure they sound friendly and human. It saves time, but it never replaces the human element.
Marketing is another area where AI has been very helpful. I use it for clean voice recordings when we need quick digital content and for drafting early versions of campaign ideas or product descriptions. It’s like having a creative assistant: it takes the time-consuming work off my plate so my focus can be applied to bigger-picture issues or customer operations.
However, I avoid using AI for email communication. You can almost always tell when someone is replying with AI and you lose the personal connection that’s so important in our industry. Our relationships with customers and vendors are built on authenticity and I never want to compromise that. So, while AI helps us be more efficient, I’m intentional about keeping email communication genuinely human.
Looking ahead to 2026, I see AI continuing to be a vital support for small businesses—a way to work smarter without sacrificing the service and relationships that set independents apart. For us at Suburban, it helps us operate like a bigger team while preserving the personal touch our customers value.
Jennifer Dawkins Spencer, vice president, Greenwood, Mississippi
When it comes to AI, I believe you have to be careful; but if you want your business to survive, you have to incorporate it somehow, someway. I don’t think technology of any kind will replace the need for sales reps or for staying in touch, because it is too easy for customers to get online and order. Customers need to see faces and dealers need to have feet on the road. I also expect sustainability to become increasingly important as more customers look for ways to better care for the Earth. We are not in California, where it is a bigger topic, but we promote it and more customers are receptive to it. We also see furniture as a way to continue setting ourselves apart from Amazon and Office Depot. Our team goes into customers’ sites, measures and suggests design ideas. We assemble the furniture, install it and take away the garbage. Amazon is not going to do that, so I see furniture as a plus for dealers and don’t envisage this advantage going away. Neither is IT. We sell TVs, computer monitors and other electronics, and I don’t see this trend changing.
Moving on…
It’s not hard to isolate the single most seismic change of 2025, which no doubt will have aftershocks continuing into 2026: Essendant’s sudden withdrawal from the IDC. But how have former Essendant dealers handled the news and what issues do they envisage coming down the line? We spoke to three dealerships about how they handled the switchover and their view of its ramifications.
Nate Morales, vice president, strategic sourcing division, Intivity, Rochester, New York
We were with S.P. Richards (SPR) for around 26 years, but we had a few issues during COVID-19 so we ended up making a switch. We’d been with Essendant as first call for about three and a half years and things were going great, so we were shocked when we got the news—just like the entire industry.
There were definitely signs that it wasn’t a healthy organization, but not to the level of: “You’ve got 60 days—good luck.” I thought it was going to be a slow one to two-year decline, where we would eventually have to make a move. But it all happened so abruptly.
Our initial main goal was to secure the supply chain—make sure that we at least had product to fulfill an order—which has gone well. Then there’s the issue of pricing, which is substantially higher for a lot of people, but it is what it is—you need a healthy organization to back you.
We may not be taking it as hard as some other independent dealers because traditional office supplies are a smaller part of our business. We therefore have less hesitation about forwarding on the additional costs to our customers; whereas some of our counterparts, where it’s the majority of their business, have found that harder and are taking more of a hit from a margin perspective.
We finished the transition two weeks prior to Industry Week. As I said, our main goal was to secure the supply chain and we are now back with SPR. Currently, we don’t have a contract, which doesn’t feel great; but we have a supply chain where we can confidently get our customers’ products. We are actively working with SPR to try to have a contract put in place by the beginning of next year, but with everything going on, I feel like it may drag on later into Q1.
Like everyone, we are also looking at other wholesale options. We’ve talked a lot with Veritiv from a jan/san perspective. We’ve also worked with TD Synnex in the past and now we’re working a lot more closely with them, especially on the technology front. Those are probably the two main ones that we’re working with at the moment. We are also trying to leverage ISG direct buy relationships.
I see us working with additional wholesalers, as I would like to take more away from Essendant. In all honesty, I don’t really want to support the business. So I’m having to go to more places to buy from. That potentially spreads my purchasing department a little too thin, when they could just be going to one place, but it’s something we’re juggling; and we’re trying to start backing specific manufacturers.
We will definitely be stocking more products. While we are considered stockless, there are 300–500 SKUs that we typically have on hand. I see that increasing a little bit, especially as we continue working through these supply issues and pricing.
It’s really important for independent dealers to diversify. It’s not just about getting into as many categories as you can; it’s also about making sure that you’re concentrated and not spreading yourself too thinly in a particular category. If you are just starting to get into jan/san, for instance, start with something like paper goods and do that well. Once that’s done, move into chemicals and build that up. To jump in and try to sell everything immediately—that’s not a good strategy to grow and be sustainable. You need to build a level of expertise in each category before you move on.
We can also use this current period of turmoil as an opportunity to implement some changes. We should all be looking at compensation plans. We need to incentivize our sales teams to go after the business that we need as independent dealers, versus just managing business. This could be our chance to do that and it’s a conversation we should be having. We need to redevelop the whole independent dealer community—start fresh and ensure that we’re making the right decisions moving forward.
Chris Crumpton, owner, Business Essentials, Grapevine, Texas
We completed the conversion just after mid-October. We just thought we needed to pivot and make the change sooner rather than later—simply because, after the news, we didn’t really know what service levels would look like with their end-of-run stocking levels on items with everybody jumping in at the same time. We just thought it best—especially with SPR and ECI—to be on the front end of that rather than on the back end and in line.
The biggest challenge overall was just the enormity of it. When you consider all the things and the effort that it takes to complete a conversion—item cross-referencing, contract reviews, price changes, web changes, back-end changes—all of it had to be worked out; and then when we flipped the switch, it all had to be done at the same time. You couldn’t just change contracts and wait; you had to do it all on a weekend after you’d put everything together. It was just a lot.
We have managed to maintain access to most products. The Boardwalk brand for Essendant has been a good brand for our customer base overall and I think SPR has some challenges ahead of it on the jan/san side. But I think they’ve already made considerable strides in a short amount of time and the work that their team’s done really has been remarkable. So, I’m hopeful that they will continue to review that category and implement changes where needed.
For a lot of dealers, this has forced them to take a hard look at the procurement side—whether that’s using their buying group and buying more items direct or building better relationships with other wholesalers out there like RJ Schinner, Bunzel or whoever it may be in their market. This is not a high-margin industry, so margin management is of the utmost importance right now for the IDC.
Customer communication is also vital. You’ve got to have touches with your medium and larger customers and ensure they’re aware of the changes happening in the industry. This isn’t the first change that’s happened: for two years, our customers have dealt with tariffs, manufacturers buying out competitors and other changes all throughout the industry. It’s not something they’re unfamiliar with and brand loyalty, in many respects, has changed tremendously, as customers increasingly look to their bottom dollar.
If the product works and the price is right, customers don’t seem to care too much. And for us, the less you can bring up the “price” word, the better off you are. We’ve got to continue pushing to our loyal customer base our value-add and what we bring to the table. If we’re just out there selling a pen for the same price as Staples or Amazon, we’re not going to win that way. The way we win is by showing what we bring to the table: service, quality and value. Our team is focused on that daily.
Jeff Lurcook, president, Strive Workplace Solutions, Portland, Oregon
Obviously, the news from Essendant was a shock and came with what we considered to be very short notice, given that we basically had to change our entire business and buying model. So, we had a lot of meetings internally and just had to prepare for the inevitable. We didn’t have a choice.
We were already second-call SPR, so now we’ve built a supply chain that goes to SPR first. That was pretty easy, although there were a lot of technical changes involved—a few new account numbers, different product numbers, things like that.
If we can’t get something from SPR, we will then try Essendant to see if we can get it from them. If we can’t, we’ll go out and turn over every rock we can to find product to fill the customer’s order—right down to running to the local store so we can ship what’s needed to our customers. Our vendor selection has quadrupled because everybody has now become a vendor
Anyone that we can buy from, we’re looking at. One of the first things we did when we got the news was to re-evaluate. We were basically a non-stocking dealer, other than copy paper and some unique items we stock that the wholesalers don’t carry; we didn’t carry a lot of SKUs in our warehouses. We’ve now ramped that up. We started analyzing the top 250 items in our seven locations in three states, looking at usage warehouse by warehouse. We then compared the wholesalers’ cost to direct buy through ISG programs and AOPD programs, to find out where the best cost was. Also, there was product that wasn’t in our local wholesaler distribution center and was creating a backorder. So, in order to raise our fill rate and maintain margin, we had to add between 100–250 new SKUs. That’s a work in progress: every month we’re re-evaluating—bringing in items and looking at the base costs, lead times and stock levels. There are a lot of analytics we do with that and it’s a constant process.
In the future, I can certainly see more consolidation in the dealer community. I guess our main challenge now is keeping up with how fluid the pricing profile is for every item out there and keeping that transparent for our customers.
During COVID-19, we were proactive and started calling customers when we had supply chain issues. We decided that every morning after we ran our backorder report, our customer care team would reach out to affected customers and explain that part of their order would be delayed. If they were not okay with that, we’d offer to sub it with an equivalent item and get it to them the next day. I would say 95 percent of our customers always said, “Oh, there’s no rush.”
We are still doing that today—and we’re doing something similar with the volatility of the pricing. One of our biggest challenges right now is the pricing profiles. Amazon has changed the way they work. We’re scrubbing pricing daily. We’re looking at every order and if we feel the algorithms that are created by our price plan hit the mark too high, that it’s not competitive, we are going in and lowering the price. Our customer care team call the customer and present it as that we were able to get them a better price on that item. They don’t need to know the whys and wherefores of it. They don’t need to know the politics. They don’t need to know there was even a change.
I know there are different schools of thought—other dealers like to go out and tell customers what’s happening in the market; but my opinion is when you do that, you invite them to shop. We’re trying to keep this behind the curtain, keep everything in front of the curtain looking normal and keep the customer satisfied—that’s our goal every day.